Should the EU impose a 20 percent tariff on imports of Chinese electric cars, as speculated, it would have a noticeable impact on bilateral trade and production in Europe. The volume of imported electric cars from China would fall by 25 percent. Converted to the almost 500,000 vehicles imported in 2023, this corresponds to an estimated 125,000 units worth almost 4 billion US dollars. The decline would largely be offset by an increase in production within the EU and a lower volume of EV exports, which would likely mean noticeably higher prices for end consumers. This is shown by simulations by the Kiel Institute.
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