Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs; however, weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained. The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5 — up from 102.8 in March, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
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