Europe risks facing another energy crisis in the aviation sector as production of sustainable aviation fuel based on synthetic fuels (e-SAF) continues to fall far behind the European Union’s ambitious 2030 climate targets. This warning comes from Scandinavian airline SAS in a newly published report.
e-SAF is produced using green hydrogen and captured CO2 and is expected to play a major role in the future supply of sustainable aviation fuel. However, large-scale production depends heavily on the availability of renewable energy generated by wind and solar power. Unlike conventional SAF, which is mainly produced from agricultural waste, used cooking oil, and animal by-products, e-SAF requires significant investments in renewable energy infrastructure and industrial production capacity.
Regulation Without Supply
Under the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, airlines will be required to gradually increase the use of sustainable aviation fuels starting in 2025, with mandatory blending targets rising steadily toward 2050. Despite these regulatory requirements, no European e-SAF production facility has yet reached a final investment decision, even as demand is expected to surge after 2030.
SAS describes the situation as a structural supply shortage that could leave Europe increasingly vulnerable to future fuel market disruptions.
Economic Impact on the Freight and Logistics Sector
The potential shortage of e-SAF is also expected to create major challenges for the air cargo and logistics industries. Higher fuel costs are likely to translate into increased air freight rates, particularly for time-sensitive cargo such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, perishables, and e-commerce shipments. Freight carriers may be forced to pass these additional costs on to shippers and end customers.
In addition, reduced flight frequencies or the cancellation of less profitable routes could disrupt global supply chains and limit cargo capacity across Europe. Logistics providers that rely heavily on air transport may face longer transit times, reduced flexibility, and growing pressure to shift cargo volumes toward alternative transport modes such as sea freight or rail.
The uncertainty surrounding future fuel availability may also slow down investment decisions within the aviation logistics sector, especially for airlines and cargo operators planning fleet expansion or sustainability initiatives.
Industry observers warn that without rapid investment in renewable energy and e-SAF production facilities, Europe’s aviation and freight sectors could face a prolonged period of instability, rising operational costs, and reduced global competitiveness.