The ACEA study reassesses the relevance of EU modal shift policies in the context of a rapidly evolving freight transport system shaped by technological change. It argues that, with the emergence of zero-emission trucks and digital innovations, freight policy should move away from treating modal shift as a goal in itself and instead adopt a balanced, data-driven and mode-neutral approach.
Based on literature review, data analysis, and expert interviews, the study finds that traditional modal shift policies have had limited impact. Road freight continues to dominate European freight transport, while rail has grown only modestly and inland waterways have declined in both share and volume.
The analysis shows that cost structures differ significantly between modes, with capital costs dominating rail and personnel costs dominating road transport. As road freight transitions to zero-emission vehicles, lower energy costs may reduce the total cost of ownership and narrow the environmental gap with rail by reducing emissions, air pollution, and noise.
The study also finds that large investments in rail infrastructure have often been constrained by operational bottlenecks, insufficient terminals and weak cross-border coordination. At the same time, modal shift targets and support schemes have frequently proven unrealistic or complex, limiting their effectiveness.
Technological developments such as digitalisation, automation, and artificial intelligence are expected to further reshape freight transport and strengthen road transport competitiveness, while rail will need improvements in traffic management, digital integration, and service reliability.
The study concludes that modal shift should not be pursued as an objective in itself. Instead, policy should focus on fairly pricing external costs across all transport modes and enabling market-driven solutions that deliver both efficiency and sustainability.
For more information and the full report, please see here.